Fed Rate Hike Met with Muted Market Reaction
Sources: Equity Market and Fixed Income returns are from JP Morgan as of 3/17/17. REIT, Rates and Economic Calendar Data from Bloomberg as of 3/20/17.
Stocks found solid footing last week with gains across all major indices. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.3%, the Russell Midcap Index gained 1% and the Russell 2000 Index gained 2%. International stocks far outpaced the U.S. last week and now lead year-to-date in 2017. Developed markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, gained 2.1% last week and are now up 7.4% for the year. The MSCI Emerging Market Index posted a strong 4.3% return for the week and continues to lead the pack overall with a year-to-date return of 12.2%.
The highly anticipated March Federal Reserve meeting took place last week and culminated with the announcement of a widely expected 0.25% increase to the Target Federal Funds Rate. This was only the third rate hike in the last decade and moved the target rate to a range of 0.75% – 1.00%. Interestingly, most bonds rose on the week as the benchmark 10 Year U.S. Treasury yield fell and closed at 2.50%. Real Estate, Telecom and Utility stocks represented the three best performing sectors last week. This is likely due to a realization that while additional rate hikes are likely this year, the terminal level that yields will ultimately reach is still low by historical standards. This will keep investors searching for income producing securities, such as the dividend paying stocks in the sectors described above.
Winter was kind to the stock market as volatility was low, earnings generally grew and returns persisted despite a long and growing list of uncertainties. Spring, however, may test investor’s mettle. We currently expect volatility to move higher and suggest that investors be strategic, yet opportunistic, with their approach to investing in order to see additional, potential growth this year. For example, many believe that sectors such as Industrials, Materials, and Financials should stand to benefit from Trump Administration policies and the continued improvement in global economic growth. To ensure you are properly allocated and aware of opportunities available in today’s market, while embracing diversification to help endure likely periods of short-term volatility ahead, we encourage you to speak with your Hennion & Walsh Financial Advisor or a member of the Hennion & Walsh Asset Management Team.
Important Information and Disclaimers
Disclosures: Past performance does not guarantee future results. We have taken this information from sources that we believe to be reliable and accurate. Hennion & Walsh cannot guarantee the accuracy of said information and cannot be held liable. This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of the asset classes or sectors discussed.
Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging markets.
There are special risks associated with an investment in real estate, including credit risk, interest rate fluctuations and the impact of varied economic conditions. Distributions from REIT investments are taxed at the owner’s tax bracket.
The prices of small company and mid cap stocks are generally more volatile than large company stocks. They often involve higher risks because smaller companies may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.
Investing in commodities is not suitable for all investors. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject an investment to greater share price volatility than an investment in traditional equity or debt securities. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity.
Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies which may expose investors to additional risks.
Investing in fixed income securities involves certain risks such as market risk if sold prior to maturity and credit risk especially if investing in high yield bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than original cost upon redemption or maturity. Bond Prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline of the value of your investment.
MSCI- EAFE: The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia and Far East Index, a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed-market equity performance, excluding the United States and Canada.
MSCI-Emerging Markets: The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Market Index, is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the performance of global emerging markets of about 25 emerging economies.
Russell 3000: The Russell 3000 measures the performance of the 3000 largest US companies based on total market capitalization and represents about 98% of the investible US Equity market.
ML BOFA US Corp Mstr [Merill Lynch US Corporate Master]: The Merrill Lynch Corporate Master Market Index is a statistical composite tracking the performance of the entire US corporate bond market over time.
ML Muni Master [Merill Lynch US Corporate Master]: The Merrill Lynch Municipal Bond Master Index is a broad measure of the municipal fixed income market.
Investors cannot directly purchase any index.
LIBOR, London Interbank Offered Rate, is the rate of interest at which banks offer to lend money to one another in the wholesale money markets in London.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unweighted index of 30 “blue-chip” industrial U.S. stocks.
The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index measuring the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market, and represents approximately 7% of the total market value of U.S. equities. Companies in the Index fall between S&P 500 Index and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index in size: between $1-4 billion.
DJ Equity REIT Index represents all publicly traded real estate investment trusts in the Dow Jones U.S. stock universe classified as Equity REITs according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices REIT Industry Classification Hierarchy. These companies are REITSs that primarily own and operate income-producing real estate.